Throwing money at AI is not a strategy
In all the decades that I have been in the shipbuilding industry I have noticed something unusual and very interesting: AI is being adopted faster than any other technology we’ve seen before. Faster than VR, faster than IoT, faster than robotics and integration of business systems such as ERP/MRP. The pace is exciting, but it’s also something we in industry need to be cautious about.
There’s no question that AI holds promise. From predictive maintenance to intelligent scheduling, the potential to improve efficiency, reduce waste, and accelerate delivery is real. As an industry, we need to ask: are we moving so fast that we’re skipping the hard questions? Are we investing wisely or just throwing money at the latest shiny object?
The Cost vs. Risk Pendulum
Shipbuilding has always been a balancing act between cost and risk. We don’t get paid upfront nor do we get ongoing payment for ships we designed and deliver multiple times like other industries such as aerospace and automotive where they make there profit on a design after several hundreds or even thousands of products sold. In shipbuilding we earn as we deliver. I discuss this in my blog post “What is the Biggest Challenge in Shipbuilding?”
That means we can’t afford to take on technologies that jeopardize current projects. Innovation must be gradual, deliberate, and aligned with how capital flows through the lifecycle of a shipyard.
Over a decade ago, we swung hard toward minimizing upfront investment. We chased big ideas such as VR, IoT, robotics, integrated digital twins, but tried to do it on shoestring budgets and compressed timelines. The result? Unrealistic goals, vague objectives, and a wave of implementations that failed to deliver. We simply did not commit the budget and resources to extract the value from those technologies as fast as we could have. We have now been able to reap the benefits but it took longer than it could have, if we committed to our goal with realistic budgets and resource to what we wanted to achieve.
Now, the pendulum is swinging the other way. Cost seems less of a concern, and the assumption is that spending more will reduce risk. In theory, that’s not wrong. In practice, it’s dangerous if we don’t understand the complexity of what we’re trying to solve.
AI Is Not a Shortcut
Let me be clear, I feel AI will absolutely help us build ships faster and cheaper. A 30% improvement in how we design, plan, execute and construct a ship is achievable, but it will not overnight and not without changes to our business. Any technology including AI is not the silver bullet. It takes time, clear goals and objectives, investment in people, culture, process and not just tools.
AI can dramatically improve a specific part of the business, but stretching that success across the organization requires patience, planning, and leadership. If we think we can transform shipbuilding in a year just by increasing spend, we’re setting ourselves up for disappointment.
The Hype Trap
We’re at the peak of the Gartner hype cycle for AI. Everyone’s eager to invest. I’ve had conversations with industry leaders who admit they’re “throwing money at the problem,” hoping something sticks. That’s not a great strategy it feels a little like desperation that they “need to invest in AI or will fall behind.” We need to invest, but just like any investment it needs to a wise investment.
The analogy I often use is this: giving a five year old a pile of money won’t make them the best version of themselves. They’ll spend it on candy and toys. However, give that same money to a thoughtful parent, and it becomes an investment in education, health, and growth. So it is not just the investment it is where we choose to spend it. There is no one AI solution that will solve all problems that a shipyard faces. We are going to have multiple AI solutions, each with a specific purpose and problem they are solving. In our strategy to invest AI we will need to prioritize which problems which can provide the most value for the investment (time and money), and that is where we need to focus our energy. The problems that AI will solve in years will be many, but just like building a ship we need to incorporate it in our business one block at a time.
Closing Remarks
There’s no doubt that shipbuilding is on the cusp of transformation. The opportunity to improve the business of shipbuilding is real and is within reach for almost every shipyard. It however will take time, and take discipline. We will need to balance the need to move fast with the willing to ensure we take the time to answer the hard questions on where we can improve the most with the least amount of effort. Having more investment (money & resources) should not change how we decided where to invest, it should only change the amount of stuff we can do.
If we invest in AI with clarity, purpose, and a long, term view we will achieve what we want to. The goal isn’t just to move fast, it’s to move smart.